Analysis of Large-Scale Climate Time-Series and their Downscaling over the Eastern Mediterranean
Assaf Hochman, PhD, Graduated BMI Fellow
Academic Advisors: Prof. Pinhas Alpert, Department of Earth Sciences, and Prof. Hadas Saaroni, Faculty of Exact Sciences
Mr. Hochman’s research demonstrates that local dimension and persistence, derived from reanalysis and CMIP5 models’ daily sea-level pressure fields, can serve as an objective quantitative method for evaluating the predictability of different Synoptic Classifications (SC). These metrics, combined with the SC transitional probability approach, are shown to be valuable to operational weather forecasts and climate model evaluation. This perspective can be extended to other geographic regions. By the end of the 21st century the duration of the synoptic summer, characterized by the occurrence of the Persian Trough, is expected to lengthen by 49%, while the synoptic winter, characterized by the occurrence of the Cyprus Low, is expected to shorten by 56%. This may lead to substantial changes in the hydrological regime and water resources, reduce the potential of dry farming, increase the risk of fires and air pollution, and change the timing of seasonal health hazards.